Nucor guides higher for third quarter, but below analyst consensus

Nucor expects third-quarter earnings to rise from both the prior quarter and a year earlier, but the steelmaker’s own guidance still falls below the analyst consensus cited by MarketBeat. The company forecast earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share for the quarter ending October 3, 2026, in its September 17 guidance statement, compared with $5.04 in the second quarter and $2.63 a year earlier.

At the steel mills business, Nucor expects higher selling prices to lift earnings while volumes remain stable. The improvement comes despite higher costs of products sold and the loss of a benefit that supported second-quarter results: $130 million in cash refunds tied to raw material procurement costs from prior periods. Nucor does not expect a similar benefit in the third quarter.

Steel products has a cleaner operating setup. Nucor expects both higher volumes and higher realized prices to lift that segment’s earnings. In raw materials, lower pricing and shipments are expected to reduce earnings from the second quarter.

The prior-quarter comparison also includes a separate investment gain. Second-quarter adjusted earnings were $4.84 per diluted share, excluding a non-cash benefit from an increase in the valuation of Nucor’s investment in fusion energy company Helion. That benefit amounted to $61 million before tax, or $0.20 per diluted share.

Nucor plans to release its results after markets close on October 26, followed by an earnings call on October 27.